Investment and Asset Protection Strategies, Political Rants, and General Tomfoolery
I have been investing and trading now for over 20 years. I started in my teens and was lucky enough to have instant success. Not to say every trade was all 'cookies and cream' but the early successes solidified the desire to increase my wealth through investment activities. I have invested in many asset classes, including commerical and residential real estate, commodities, stocks, bonds, options, and private placement. Due to my current international lifestyle, I have chosen to stick with things that don't require a physical presence (ie real estate) and sticking mainly to the equity, bond and commodity markets. If done properly, these markets destroy the concept of the EMT (efficient market theory) and create significant wealth for you and your family. In 2008 my portfolio was down just under 10% (down is bad, but better than almost every money manager that year), in 2009 my portfolio was up just over 100%.

Feel free to comment, disagree, or dispute anything. All non-spam replies will be posted. Happy trading.

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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

How to Track Trailing Stop Losses

Today I want to discuss trailing stops. If you have any experience with investing or trading, you are surely aware of stop loss orders. However, this is not exactly what I am talking about.

I want to show you how to track trailing stops. I will illustrate. You buy stock X for $100 and track a trailing stop of 10%. This means if X goes to $90, you sell and book a $10 loss. Of course no one wants to lose, but keeping track of your losses and cutting them early will eliminate emotion from your trading and protect you from a catastrophic loss. With a trailing stop, the 10% moves up as the price of the stock increases. So if X goes to $150 then you sell at $135. Thus locking in your profit at a minimum of $35.

It is really quite easy to do this. I personally just use an excel spreadsheet. I enter the stock name, symbol, purchase price, and high price. Then in the next column I enter my trailing stop of 25%, 15% or 10%, depending on the stock. I use a formula that autmatically gives me my sell price. At least 2-3 times per week, I look at the closing prices of my stocks and adjust. If a stock makes a new high, I adjust my high price. If it closes below my sell price, I enter a sell order for the next day. It took about 30 minutes to create the original spreadsheet with the formulas and about 5-10 minutes to update. I consider this time well spent.

You will also need to consider your dividends when tracking your trailing stops. If the stock is trading at $50 and it pays a $1 quarterly dividend, then the stock will drop by approximately $1 on the ex-dividend day. Keep in mind that each time you are paid this $1 dividend, this reduces your cost basis by $1 and thus should lower your high price by $1. This way you don't get stopped out of a stock too early due to a dividend payment.

You may ask, "why don't I just enter the trailing stop order with my broker?" It is true that most brokers now will allow you to enter a trailing stop loss order and just not worry about it any more. I would never, ever enter any type of stop loss order with my broker. The market makers are there to take advantage of you. If you enter a 10% trailing stop order in with your broker on a stock that cost $50, the order is in the system to sell at $45. If the stock drops to $45.50, market makers can push the price down to $45 to buy your shares and almost immediately the price can run back up. I have personally experienced this and it taught me my lesson.

I used to think with high volume stocks, I could enter my trailing stop orders with my broker and just forget about it. Once I had a stock trading at about $340 per share and my trailing stop order was approximately $312. One morning my shares were sold at EXACTLY my trailing stop order price, TO THE PENNY. To the penny!!! And within minutes the stock was back trading at around $330 per share. Lesson learned.

The point is you need to take control of your trading and not let someone else decide when you sell. It is important to have an investment strategy. This strategy involves both the price you pay AND the price you sell. If you establish this in your strategy, you eliminate the emotion from your investments. Trailing stops has been one of the most important things I have learned in my investing career and I hope you will employ this strategy as well. Happy trading.

2 comments:

  1. Thank you for your great advice.
    1) Your experience with your broker is quite scary. Can you share his name? :-)
    2) I'm in the process of searching for an additional broker so I won't have all my eggs in one basket. Any advice or suggestion?
    3) If you had so much trouble with brokers chasing your stoplosses, why didn't you switch to an ECN broker who won't trade against you but make money through trade-based commissions?
    Sorry if my question sounds silly to you...

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  2. Fred,

    This is not just a problem with a single broker. If you place a stop loss order in with your broker, it can be seen by any market maker. This is why it is important to track them yourself. I use an excel spreadsheet.

    This depends on what you are trying to accomplish. Internaxx or Saxo are good.

    I have no problems with stop losses. I use trailing stops to protect my profit. This is my preference over simple stop losses.

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